Indicator: Senior summer on track

Definition

High school graduates intending to enroll in postsecondary education in the fall after high school graduation complete the registration, financial, and logistic deadlines over the summer necessary to successfully enroll in the fall.

Recommended Metric(s)

Percentage of high school graduates reporting intentions to enroll in postsecondary education in the fall who successfully enroll in a postsecondary institution by October 31 following their high school graduation

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Percentage of high school graduates reporting intentions to enroll in postsecondary education in the fall who successfully enroll in a postsecondary institution by October 31 following their high school graduation

CEDS Connections offer guidance, including data elements and step-by-step analysis recommendations, for how to calculate select metrics.

Type(s) of Data Needed

Administrative data; surveys

Why it matters

Disparities in college enrollment are compounded by the period of transition from high school to college: between 10 and 40 percent of graduating high school seniors who intend to attend college do not matriculate in the fall, with rates of “summer melt” especially high among college-intending students from low-income households.1, 2 For example, an analysis of Chicago Public Schools graduates found that 20 percent of students who planned to attend a four-year college in the fall and had been accepted into one did not enroll in the fall.3 One reason for the summer melt phenomenon is the number and complexity of tasks students must complete before they can successfully enroll in college. For students from low-income or first-generation households in particular, these tasks create an additional barrier during the time when they are out of high school, but not yet in college and therefore may have limited access to supports. Studies show that text messaging interventions that remind students about pre-matriculation tasks and connect them to support from counselors or peers can reduce summer melt and raise enrollment among low-income students.4, 5, 6

What to know about measurement

This indicator can and should be measured by both K–12 and postsecondary institutions. In its summer melt handbook, the Strategic Data Project at Harvard University’s Center for Education Policy Research recommends (1) determining which students intend to enroll in college in the fall after high school graduation (for example, through an exit survey fielded in the last month of high school or through administrative records), (2) determining which students actually enroll in college in the fall, and (3) determining the rate of summer melt using the information gathered in Steps 1 and 2.7 The handbook includes other guidance on measurement and intervention. For example, as part of Step 1, it recommends asking students to provide updated contact information, including their cell phone number and email address, to allow schools to conduct outreach during the summer. For Step 2, institutions may use enrollment data from the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) and/or state longitudinal data systems. Postsecondary institutions reporting to the NSC capture approximately 97 percent of all postsecondary enrollment in Title IV degree-granting institutions; however, some types of institutions are less likely to report to the NSC, especially private two-year colleges and for-profit institutions.8

Source frameworks

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation K–12 Student Outcomes and Indicators include a measure of senior summer on track, which aligns with this indicator.

References