Indicator: Grade point average
Definition
Middle school students earn course grades that demonstrate high school readiness; high school students earn course grades necessary to gain admission to college; and college students earn grades high enough to graduate and obtain jobs.
RECOMMENDED METRIC(S)
Percentage of students in grades 6–8 with a cumulative GPA of 3.0 or higher
Percentage of students in grades 9–12 with a cumulative GPA of 3.0 or higher
Percentage of college students with a GPA of 3.0 or higher
Note: CEDS Connections offer guidance, including data elements and step-by-step analysis recommendations, for how to calculate select metrics.
Type(s) of Data Needed
Student transcriptsWhy it matters
Students’ course performance is highly predictive of later outcomes. For example, high school grade point average (GPA) predicts success in college, even more so than test scores. College GPA is also associated with a greater likelihood of graduating. One study found that college students with a one-point higher GPA are 24 percentage points more likely to graduate. College GPA also affects students’ eligibility for financial aid and their employment prospects. According to the Job Outlook 2019 survey, 73 percent of employers used college GPA as a screening tool, with a GPA of 3.0 used as the most common threshold.
A national analysis of high school students’ GPAs revealed disparities by race and ethnicity, with Asian and Pacific Islander students earning a 3.1 GPA and White students earning a 2.9 GPA, on average, compared to 2.6 for Latino students and 2.5 for Black students. Disparities persist in college, where Black students nationwide are nearly three times as likely as White students to graduate with a GPA below 2.5. Course grades reflect a student’s effort and skills as well as grader bias—an analysis of 20 research studies found consistent evidence of grader bias by students’ race, ethnicity, and past poor performance, from elementary school through college.
What to know about measurement
Schools and colleges record student GPAs as part of their regular operations, making this indicator feasible to measure, although reporting of student transcript data to higher levels (district, state, federal) varies. In addition to the risk of grading subjectivity and bias noted earlier, there is evidence of different grading criteria across postsecondary institution types and of grade inflation at the postsecondary level. GPA, which aggregates course grades into a single value, can be more reliable than a single course grade, though GPA calculations can differ across localities. In addition, a student’s GPA may be related to their relative performance among other students at their school or college, a phenomenon sometimes called “the frog pond effect.” Therefore, although GPA is a highly predictive measure, care should be taken in comparing GPA values across contexts.
Source frameworks
This indicator appeared in 10 source frameworks reviewed for this report. The suggested thresholds draw on studies by the UChicago Consortium on School Research showing that a high school GPA of 3.0 is the threshold above which students’ probability of graduating college becomes greater than 50 percent. The suggested thresholds also draw on survey research by the National Association of Colleges and Employers revealing that employers most commonly use a 3.0 threshold as a screening tool for job applicants.
References
The framework's recommendations are based on syntheses of existing research. Please see the framework report for a list of works cited.